Hazard and Risk dynamics

The understanding and quantification of extreme events and the associated risk is the key to risk assessment and disaster reduction.

We focus together with other sections of the German Resaerch Center for Geosciences (GFZ) on two science questions:

  • What are the critical process interactions that lead to extreme events?
  • How can changes in hazard and risk be quantified and integrated in risk assessments?

The scientists investigate interactions between different geophysical processes and/or different compartments of the system Earth. Examples are earthquake-earthquake interactions, volcano-earthquake interactions, or earthquake-induced landslides or tsunamis. To this end, they combine field and laboratory experiments, long-term monitoring, and numerical and analytical modeling. Traditionally, hazard and risk analyses were based on the concept of stationarity. Today, risk and in certain instances also hazard has to be seen as a time-varying quantity, for example, due to changes in societal vulnerability. The scentists need to understand how risks change in time and which drivers contribute to changes in hazard, vulnerability and risk.

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